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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Cardiff defy the odds to beat Hull City 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Hull City 1-0 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.07 xG and Hull City 1.13 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hull City landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.91 / defence 1.11 against Hull City attack 0.99 / defence 0.86, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 34% | Draw 30% | Hull City 37%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cardiff win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 48%, Hull City 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Hull City's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.20 PPG, Hull City 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights