Cardiff 1-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derby make the trip to Cardiff City Stadium to face Cardiff in Championship, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Tuesday 1 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Cardiff (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cardiff's home record at Cardiff City Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Championship appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Cardiff, 1.10 for Derby — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Cardiff — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Derby — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 53% versus Derby 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 56% | Derby 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.35 xG and Derby 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.955 / defence 1.094 | Derby attack 0.655 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.077. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing Cardiff's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Cardiff games / 34 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 51% | Draw 28% | Derby 21%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Derby 4.76. Cardiff hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cardiff if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cardiff 40% | Derby 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 51% | Draw 28% | Derby 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Cardiff 1.35 / Derby 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.955 / def 1.094 | Derby attack 0.655 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Derby xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Derby kick off?
Cardiff vs Derby kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 March 2022 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Derby?
Cardiff 1 - 0 Derby.
Where is Cardiff vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Derby part of?
Cardiff vs Derby is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 51% chance of winning, Derby a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cardiff and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cardiff and Derby in?
Cardiff (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Derby (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cardiff's attack rating (0.95) and Derby's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.66x) against Cardiff's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
51%
1.98
28%
3.56
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.12
0.77
Derby xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
6%
18.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.5 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Cardiff and 0.77 for Derby, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Cardiff have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 10W 6D 18L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Derby's form line: 10W 12D 12L from 34 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Cardiff against 1.24 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cardiff have posted 1.00 PPG from 17 outings (5W 2D 10L).
On the road, Derby have gone 2W 6D 9L from 17 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Attack vs Defence
Cardiff are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.00 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Derby in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 10W 6D 18L in their last 34 games (1.06 PPG), while Derby have gone 10W 12D 12L in their last 34 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Derby away?
Cardiff's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.00 PPG; Derby away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Derby in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cardiff have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Cardiff
0
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 3, Derby have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Cardiff 2-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Derby?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Derby see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 41%, Derby 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Cardiff) and 35% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Cardiff have failed to score in 47% of games; Derby in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Cardiff's recent matches and 47% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Cardiff's recent games and 35% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Derby tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Derby in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cardiff edge out Derby 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Derby 1-0 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.35 xG and Derby 0.77 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Derby attack 0.66 / defence 1.33, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 51% | Draw 28% | Derby 21%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 56%, Derby 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Derby's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.06 PPG, Derby 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.