Cardiff vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Cardiff at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derby make the trip to Cardiff City Stadium to face Cardiff in Championship, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Cardiff (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff's home record at Cardiff City Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Cardiff are significantly better at Cardiff City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Cardiff, 0.80 for Derby — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Cardiff 3W, Derby 1W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cardiff — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Derby — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cardiff 57% and Derby 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 54% | Derby 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.49 xG and Derby 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.007 / defence 1.104 | Derby attack 0.950 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.255. Data: 8 Cardiff games / 54 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 40% | Draw 29% | Derby 32%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Derby 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cardiff if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 50% | Derby 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Mar 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 40% | Draw 29% | Derby 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Cardiff 1.49 / Derby 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 1.007 / def 1.104 | Derby attack 0.950 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Derby xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Derby kick off?
Cardiff vs Derby is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at Cardiff City Stadium.
Where is Cardiff vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Derby part of?
Cardiff vs Derby is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 40% chance of winning, Derby a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cardiff and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Derby?
Record (5 meetings): Cardiff 3W | Draws 1 | Derby 1W.
What form are Cardiff and Derby in?
Cardiff (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Derby (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cardiff's attack rating (1.01) and Derby's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.95x) against Cardiff's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 8/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
40%
2.53
29%
3.46
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.81
1.32
Derby xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.32 for Derby, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Cardiff have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 28W 14D 12L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 21W 11D 22L from 54 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cardiff are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Derby.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cardiff have posted 2.19 PPG from 27 outings (18W 5D 4L).
On the road, Derby have gone 11W 4D 12L from 27 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cardiff come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cardiff are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.37 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby in 63%.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Derby in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 28W 14D 12L in their last 54 games (1.81 PPG), while Derby have gone 21W 11D 22L in their last 54 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Derby away?
Cardiff's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 2.19 PPG; Derby away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Derby in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cardiff have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Cardiff
1
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Derby?
From 5 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 3, Derby have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Derby 2-2 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Derby?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 56%, Derby 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Cardiff and 63% for Derby. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Cardiff's games and 63% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cardiff vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Cardiff's matches and 63% of Derby's.
Do Cardiff and Derby tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Derby in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.