Cardiff vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cardiff (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cardiff face Derby.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derby make the trip to Cardiff City Stadium to face Cardiff in Championship, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Cardiff (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff's home record at Cardiff City Stadium: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Championship appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Cardiff are significantly better at Cardiff City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Cardiff's favour (1.50 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cardiff register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Derby in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Cardiff 3W, Derby 1W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cardiff — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Derby — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cardiff 59% and Derby 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 57% | Derby 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 2.73 xG and Derby 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.413 / defence 1.287 | Derby attack 0.899 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.294. Cardiff carry an above-average attack strength of 1.413 — their λ of 2.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Cardiff's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Cardiff games / 61 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 64% | Draw 17% | Derby 19%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 1.56 | Draw 5.88 | Derby 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Cardiff (64%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.22. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.22 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.73 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 80% | Derby 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Mar 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 64% | Draw 17% | Derby 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 73% | xG Cardiff 2.73 / Derby 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 1.413 / def 1.287 | Derby attack 0.899 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.73
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Derby xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Derby kick off?
Cardiff vs Derby is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at Cardiff City Stadium.
Where is Cardiff vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Derby part of?
Cardiff vs Derby is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 64% chance of winning, Derby a 19% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Cardiff and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Derby?
Record (5 meetings): Cardiff 3W | Draws 1 | Derby 1W.
What form are Cardiff and Derby in?
Cardiff (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Derby (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cardiff's attack rating (1.41) and Derby's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.90x) against Cardiff's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 15/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.1%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.4%), 1-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
64%
1.57
17%
5.84
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
2 – 2
6.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.73
Cardiff xG
Total xG
4.22
1.50
Derby xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.84
17%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.64
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
7%
15.32
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
1%
79.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 2.73 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.50 for Derby, a combined total of 4.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Cardiff have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 31W 16D 14L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 22W 13D 26L from 61 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cardiff are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Derby.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cardiff have posted 2.20 PPG from 30 outings (20W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Cardiff are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Derby have gone 11W 5D 14L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cardiff come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cardiff are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.33 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby in 64%.
Last 61 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Derby in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 31W 16D 14L in their last 61 games (1.79 PPG), while Derby have gone 22W 13D 26L in their last 61 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Derby away?
Cardiff's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 2.20 PPG; Derby away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cardiff have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Cardiff
1
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Derby?
From 5 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 3, Derby have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Derby 2-2 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Derby?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 57%, Derby 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Cardiff and 63% for Derby. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Cardiff's games and 67% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cardiff vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Cardiff's matches and 63% of Derby's.
Do Cardiff and Derby tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Derby in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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