Cardiff 2-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cardiff face Derby.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derby make the trip to Cardiff City Stadium to face Cardiff in Championship (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Saturday 25 January 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Cardiff (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cardiff's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Derby's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Cardiff, 0.70 for Derby — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Cardiff, 1 for Derby and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Cardiff 0–1 Derby — a Derby win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Cardiff — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Derby — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 49% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 47% | Derby 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.49 xG and Derby 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.883 / defence 1.148 | Derby attack 0.840 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.029. Derby's defence rating of 1.231 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cardiff's projected output up. Data: built from Cardiff's last 74 games and Derby's last 28.
Result probabilities: Cardiff 48% | Draw 28% | Derby 24%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.09 | Draw 3.56 | Derby 4.14. Cardiff hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cardiff if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cardiff 40% (last 10 home games) | Derby 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Derby | Competition: Championship, matchday 29 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 January 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 48% | Draw 28% | Derby 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Cardiff 1.49 / Derby 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.883 / def 1.148 | Derby attack 0.840 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Derby xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cardiff vs Derby FAQs
What time does Cardiff vs Derby kick off?
Cardiff vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 25 January 2025 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Derby?
Cardiff 2 - 1 Derby.
Where is Cardiff vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Derby part of?
Cardiff vs Derby is a Championship fixture (matchday 29) (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 48% chance of winning, Derby a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cardiff and Derby will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Cardiff vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cardiff's attack rating (0.88) and Derby's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.84x) against Cardiff's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Cardiff's last 74 games and Derby's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
48%
2.09
28%
3.56
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.48
0.99
Derby xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
5%
18.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.3 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cardiff vs Derby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Cardiff and 0.99 for Derby, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 74 outings, Cardiff have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 25W 15D 34L record — D-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Derby's form line: 35W 14D 25L from 74 games, 1.61 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Cardiff against 1.61 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cardiff have posted 1.35 PPG from their last 37 home games (15W 5D 17L).
On the road, Derby have gone 14W 8D 15L from their last 37 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cardiff are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.47 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
Cardiff (Home) vs Derby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cardiff
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Cardiff vs Derby Form FAQs
What form are Cardiff and Derby in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 25W 15D 34L in their last 74 games (1.22 PPG), while Derby have gone 35W 14D 25L in their last 74 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Derby away?
Cardiff's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.35 PPG; Derby away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Derby in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Cardiff and Derby, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cardiff have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Cardiff
1
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Cardiff vs Derby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Derby?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Cardiff have won 3, Derby have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Derby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Derby 2-2 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Derby?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 40%, Derby 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Cardiff) and 49% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Derby in 32%; Cardiff have failed to score in 35% of games; Derby in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cardiff vs Derby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cardiff and Derby matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cardiff's recent matches and 49% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cardiff and Derby matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Cardiff's recent games and 49% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Derby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Cardiff's recent matches and 70% of Derby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cardiff edge out Derby 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Derby 2-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.49 xG and Derby 0.99 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Derby attack 0.84 / defence 1.23, drawn from 74/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 48% | Draw 28% | Derby 24%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 47%, Derby 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.22 PPG, Derby 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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