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Stalemate at Burnley's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burnley and Sunderland finished level at 0-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.93 xG and Sunderland 0.79 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burnley fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.73 / defence 0.72 against Sunderland attack 1.07 / defence 0.92, drawn from 26/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 36% | Draw 37% | Sunderland 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 44%, Sunderland 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sunderland's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burnley 1.19 PPG, Sunderland 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights