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Stalemate at Burnley's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 25, as Burnley and Stoke City drew 0-0 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.12 xG and Stoke City 0.56 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burnley fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.79 / defence 0.72 against Stoke City attack 0.77 / defence 1.02, drawn from 24/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 48% | Draw 34% | Stoke City 18%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 45%, Stoke City 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Stoke City's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burnley 1.16 PPG, Stoke City 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights