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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Burnley cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hull City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burnley beat Hull City 2-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.78 xG and Hull City 0.64 xG, a combined 1.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.66 / defence 0.59 against Hull City attack 1.03 / defence 0.88, drawn from 31/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 35% | Draw 38% | Hull City 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Burnley win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 17%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 42% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 26% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 42%, Hull City 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Hull City's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burnley 1.23 PPG, Hull City 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights