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Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Bristol City 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burnley beat Bristol City 1-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.29 xG and Bristol City 0.62 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 1.01 / defence 0.60 against Bristol City attack 1.01 / defence 0.96, drawn from 38/84 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 53% | Draw 30% | Bristol City 18%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 42%, Bristol City 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bristol City's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burnley 1.34 PPG, Bristol City 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Bristol City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights