Burnley vs Bolton Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Bolton at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Bolton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bolton make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Championship (matchday 39). The match kicks off on Saturday 20 March 2027 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Burnley (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Burnley have gone 0W 7D 3L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bolton's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Bolton have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Bolton are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Burnley — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 70%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Bolton — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Burnley 66% and Bolton 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 55% | Bolton 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Burnley surrender their half-time lead 70% of the time, while Bolton have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.28 xG and Bolton 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.759 / defence 1.112 | Bolton attack 0.988 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.294. Burnley's attack rating of 0.759 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.28. Data: built from Burnley's last 15 games and Bolton's last 15.
Result probabilities: Burnley 34% | Draw 26% | Bolton 40%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.95 | Draw 3.89 | Bolton 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bolton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burnley 80% (last 10 home games) | Bolton 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Bolton | Competition: Championship, matchday 39 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 20 March 2027 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 34% | Draw 26% | Bolton 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Burnley 1.28 / Bolton 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.759 / def 1.112 | Bolton attack 0.988 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Bolton (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Bolton xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burnley vs Bolton FAQs
What time does Burnley vs Bolton kick off?
Burnley vs Bolton is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Turf Moor.
Where is Burnley vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Bolton part of?
Burnley vs Bolton is a Championship fixture (matchday 39) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 34% chance of winning, Bolton a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Burnley and Bolton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Burnley vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.76) and Bolton's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bolton's attack (0.99x) against Burnley's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from Burnley's last 15 games and Bolton's last 15 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
34%
2.95
26%
3.89
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.70
1.42
Bolton xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
8%
12.24
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burnley vs Bolton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Burnley and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Burnley and 1.42 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burnley's recent record stands at 5W 17D 31L from 53 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Bolton, meanwhile, have gone 23W 15D 15L across 53 games — 1.58 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bolton by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Burnley have managed 2W 12D 12L from their last 26 home games — 0.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bolton's away record stands at 10W 9D 7L across their last 26 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Burnley are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.51 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Bolton in 60%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Bolton
Blended
Burnley (Home) vs Bolton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burnley
Blended
Bolton
Blended
❓ Burnley vs Bolton Form FAQs
What form are Burnley and Bolton in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 5W 17D 31L in their last 53 games (0.60 PPG), while Bolton have gone 23W 15D 15L in their last 53 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Bolton away?
Bolton's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.69 PPG; Bolton away: 1.50 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 54%, Bolton 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Burnley) and 42% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Bolton in 31%; Burnley have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burnley vs Bolton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burnley and Bolton matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Burnley's games and 58% of Bolton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Burnley and Bolton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Burnley's recent games and 42% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Bolton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Burnley's recent matches and 65% of Bolton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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