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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Bristol City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Swansea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bristol City beat Swansea 3-0 at Ashton Gate Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 1.15 xG and Swansea 1.01 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bristol City beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Swansea landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 1.04 / defence 1.03 against Swansea attack 0.84 / defence 0.89, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol City 39% | Draw 29% | Swansea 32%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 48%, Swansea 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol City's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Swansea's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bristol City 1.43 PPG, Swansea 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol City win broke the near-deadlock. Bristol City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights