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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bristol City edge out Sunderland 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bristol City beat Sunderland 2-1 at Ashton Gate Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 1.21 xG and Sunderland 0.89 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 1.13 / defence 0.90 against Sunderland attack 1.00 / defence 0.85, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol City 43% | Draw 29% | Sunderland 27%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 39%, Sunderland 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol City's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Sunderland's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bristol City 1.43 PPG, Sunderland 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol City win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights