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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Bristol City 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

QPR beat Bristol City 1-2 at Ashton Gate Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 1.92 xG and QPR 1.41 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bristol City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 1.13 / defence 1.17 against QPR attack 1.02 / defence 1.43, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol City 49% | Draw 24% | QPR 27%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 48%, QPR 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol City's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

QPR's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bristol City 1.43 PPG, QPR 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Bristol City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. QPR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights