🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Bristol City and QPR share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Ashton Gate Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Bristol City and QPR drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 1.12 xG and QPR 0.84 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 1.01 / defence 0.95 against QPR attack 0.86 / defence 0.83, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol City 40% | Draw 34% | QPR 25%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 39%, QPR 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol City's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

QPR's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bristol City 1.33 PPG, QPR 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights