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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bristol City and Preston share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Ashton Gate Stadium, Regular Season - 46, as Bristol City and Preston drew 2-2 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 1.64 xG and Preston 0.82 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Preston outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 1.15 / defence 0.92 against Preston attack 0.89 / defence 1.09, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol City 57% | Draw 25% | Preston 19%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 41%, Preston 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol City's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Preston's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bristol City 1.42 PPG, Preston 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bristol City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Preston (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights