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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bristol City cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Middlesbrough.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bristol City beat Middlesbrough 2-0 at Ashton Gate Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 1.26 xG and Middlesbrough 1.30 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Middlesbrough landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 0.97 / defence 0.99 against Middlesbrough attack 1.09 / defence 0.93, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol City 35% | Draw 28% | Middlesbrough 37%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bristol City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 46%, Middlesbrough 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol City's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Middlesbrough's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bristol City 1.40 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol City win broke the near-deadlock. Bristol City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights