🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Bristol City edge out Middlesbrough 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bristol City beat Middlesbrough 2-1 at Ashton Gate Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 1.55 xG and Middlesbrough 1.11 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 0.96 / defence 0.79 against Middlesbrough attack 1.36 / defence 1.20, drawn from 79/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol City 47% | Draw 26% | Middlesbrough 27%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 38%, Middlesbrough 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol City's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Middlesbrough's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bristol City 1.37 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol City win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights