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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bristol City cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Hull City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bristol City beat Hull City 4-2 at Ashton Gate Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 0.90 xG and Hull City 0.81 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Bristol City beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hull City outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 0.93 / defence 0.87 against Hull City attack 0.82 / defence 0.75, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol City 36% | Draw 34% | Hull City 31%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 47%, Hull City 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol City's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Hull City's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bristol City 1.41 PPG, Hull City 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol City win broke the near-deadlock. Bristol City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights