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Prediction vindicated as Bristol City edge out Derby 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bristol City beat Derby 1-0 at Ashton Gate Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 1.73 xG and Derby 0.76 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 0.98 / defence 0.84 against Derby attack 0.90 / defence 1.25, drawn from 71/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol City 59% | Draw 26% | Derby 15%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 39%, Derby 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol City's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Derby's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bristol City 1.35 PPG, Derby 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol City win broke the near-deadlock. Bristol City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights