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Stalemate at Bristol City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bristol City and Charlton finished level at 0-0 at Ashton Gate Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 1.68 xG and Charlton 0.92 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bristol City fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Charlton landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 1.10 / defence 0.97 against Charlton attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Bristol City 55% | Draw 24% | Charlton 21%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 49%, Charlton 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol City's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Charlton's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bristol City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights