Bolton vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Derby at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bolton vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 29 as Bolton welcome Derby to Toughsheet Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Bolton have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bolton's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Toughsheet Community Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bolton carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bolton, 3 for Derby and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2026, ended 1–3 with Derby winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bolton trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Derby trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bolton 62% and Derby 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 54% | Derby 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.59 xG and Derby 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 0.832 / defence 1.521 | Derby attack 0.900 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.292. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Bolton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Bolton games / 60 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bolton 35% | Draw 23% | Derby 42%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Derby 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Derby lead the H2H ledger, but Bolton carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bolton (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bolton 70% | Derby 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 35% | Draw 23% | Derby 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Bolton 1.59 / Derby 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 0.832 / def 1.521 | Derby attack 0.900 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Derby (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Derby xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bolton vs Derby kick off?
Bolton vs Derby is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
Where is Bolton vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Derby part of?
Bolton vs Derby is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 35% chance of winning, Derby a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Bolton and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Bolton vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Derby?
Record (5 meetings): Bolton 1W | Draws 1 | Derby 3W.
What form are Bolton and Derby in?
Bolton (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Derby (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bolton's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Bolton's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
35%
2.86
23%
4.41
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Bolton xG
Total xG
3.36
1.77
Derby xG
2.86
35%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
6%
16.75
9%
11.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Bolton and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Bolton and 1.77 for Derby, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Bolton have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 26W 19D 16L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bolton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 22W 13D 26L from 61 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bolton on 1.59 PPG, Derby on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bolton have posted 1.83 PPG from 30 outings (16W 7D 7L).
On the road, Derby have gone 11W 5D 14L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bolton are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.33 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bolton have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Derby in 64%.
Last 61 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bolton and Derby in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 26W 19D 16L in their last 61 games (1.59 PPG), while Derby have gone 22W 13D 26L in their last 61 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Derby away?
Bolton's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 1.83 PPG; Derby away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bolton and Derby runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 6 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Derby have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Bolton's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Bolton
1
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Derby?
From 5 meetings on record, Bolton have won 1, Derby have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 6 November 2026, when Derby 3-1 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bolton at 67%, Derby at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Bolton and 63% for Derby. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bolton play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Bolton's games and 67% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bolton vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Bolton's matches and 63% of Derby's.
Do Bolton and Derby tend to score early?
Bolton have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Derby in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More UK football predictions →