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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out Blackburn 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City beat Blackburn 0-1 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.09 xG and Hull City 1.88 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Blackburn fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Hull City landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.86 / defence 1.14 against Hull City attack 1.41 / defence 0.95, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Blackburn 21% | Draw 24% | Hull City 55%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 40%, Hull City 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Blackburn's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Hull City's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.28 PPG, Hull City 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights