Blackburn 0-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Blackburn vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Hull City travel to Ewood Park to take on Blackburn. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Blackburn have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Blackburn have posted 2W 4D 4L at Ewood Park — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Hull City's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hull City are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Blackburn, 4 for Hull City and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 3–0 with Blackburn winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Blackburn in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hull City in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 43% versus Hull City 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 40% | Hull City 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.09 xG and Hull City 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 0.858 / defence 1.144 | Hull City attack 1.411 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.164. Hull City have an above-average attack strength of 1.411 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 74 Blackburn games / 74 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackburn 21% | Draw 24% | Hull City 55%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Hull City 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Hull City (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Blackburn 70% | Hull City 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 21% | Draw 24% | Hull City 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Blackburn 1.09 / Hull City 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 0.858 / def 1.144 | Hull City attack 1.411 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Hull City (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Hull City xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackburn vs Hull City kick off?
Blackburn vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs Hull City?
Blackburn 0 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Blackburn vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs Hull City part of?
Blackburn vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 21% chance of winning, Hull City a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Blackburn and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Blackburn vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Hull City?
Record (9 meetings): Blackburn 4W | Draws 1 | Hull City 4W.
What form are Blackburn and Hull City in?
Blackburn (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Hull City (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Blackburn's attack at 0.86x the league average against Hull City's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Blackburn's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
21%
4.82
24%
4.10
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Blackburn xG
Total xG
2.97
1.88
Hull City xG
4.82
21%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
15%
6.55
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
3%
31.61
18%
5.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Blackburn and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.88 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs Hull City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 74 outings, Blackburn have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 26W 17D 31L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Hull City's form line: 27W 18D 29L from 74 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Blackburn on 1.28 PPG, Hull City on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Blackburn have posted 1.38 PPG from 37 outings (14W 9D 14L).
On the road, Hull City have gone 14W 8D 15L from 37 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Blackburn are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.23 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackburn and Hull City in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 26W 17D 31L in their last 74 games (1.28 PPG), while Hull City have gone 27W 18D 29L in their last 74 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or Hull City away?
Blackburn's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.38 PPG; Hull City away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Blackburn and Hull City runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Blackburn won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Blackburn's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Blackburn
1
Draws
5
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, Blackburn have won 4, Hull City have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Blackburn 0-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 51%, Hull City 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Blackburn) and 46% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Blackburn have failed to score in 27% of games; Hull City in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackburn play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Blackburn's recent matches and 51% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Blackburn vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Blackburn's recent games and 46% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackburn and Hull City tend to score early?
Blackburn have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Hull City in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out Blackburn 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Blackburn 0-1 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.09 xG and Hull City 1.88 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Blackburn fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Hull City landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.86 / defence 1.14 against Hull City attack 1.41 / defence 0.95, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 21% | Draw 24% | Hull City 55%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 40%, Hull City 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.28 PPG, Hull City 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.