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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Cardiff defy the odds to beat Blackburn 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Blackburn 1-2 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.74 xG and Cardiff 0.97 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cardiff outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against Cardiff attack 1.01 / defence 1.39, drawn from 83/83 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Blackburn 55% | Draw 24% | Cardiff 21%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Cardiff win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 52%, Cardiff 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Blackburn's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Cardiff's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.27 PPG, Cardiff 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights