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Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Blackburn 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burnley beat Blackburn 0-1 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 0.66 xG and Burnley 0.97 xG, a combined 1.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against Burnley attack 1.00 / defence 0.52, drawn from 70/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Blackburn 23% | Draw 37% | Burnley 41%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 49%, Burnley 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Blackburn's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Burnley's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.30 PPG, Burnley 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Burnley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights