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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Birmingham defy the odds to beat Blackburn 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Birmingham beat Blackburn 1-2 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.62 xG and Birmingham 0.97 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Birmingham outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 1.06 / defence 1.01 against Birmingham attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Blackburn 53% | Draw 25% | Birmingham 22%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Birmingham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 38%, Birmingham 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Blackburn's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Birmingham's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Blackburn (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights