České Budějovice 0-3 Teplice – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Teplice at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this České Budějovice vs Teplice encounter.

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Full Analysis

Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov plays host to České Budějovice versus Teplice in Czech Liga (Relegation Round - 4). Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025 at 17:00 UK time.

Form

České Budějovice (all games): 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

České Budějovice's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.

Teplice's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Teplice have gone 0W 6D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, Teplice are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for České Budějovice, 4 for Teplice and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2025, ended České Budějovice 1–1 Teplice — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

České Budějovice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 80%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 48% versus Teplice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 60% | Teplice 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: České Budějovice surrender their half-time lead 80% of the time, while Teplice have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.09 xG and Teplice 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.780 / defence 1.404 | Teplice attack 0.809 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.203. České Budějovice's attack rating of 0.780 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. České Budějovice's defence rating of 1.404 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Teplice's projected output up. Data: built from České Budějovice's last 60 games and Teplice's last 60.

Result probabilities: České Budějovice 30% | Draw 27% | Teplice 43%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 3.36 | Draw 3.67 | Teplice 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: České Budějovice 40% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 70% (last 10 away games).

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