České Budějovice 0-3 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Teplice (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as České Budějovice face Teplice.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov plays host to České Budějovice versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
České Budějovice (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
České Budějovice's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 games at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this term (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Teplice have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Teplice are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for České Budějovice, 4 for Teplice and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
České Budějovice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 48% versus Teplice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 60% | Teplice 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.09 xG and Teplice 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.780 / defence 1.404 | Teplice attack 0.809 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.203. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 České Budějovice games / 60 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 30% | Draw 27% | Teplice 43%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Teplice 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: České Budějovice 40% | Teplice 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 30% | Draw 27% | Teplice 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG České Budějovice 1.09 / Teplice 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.780 / def 1.404 | Teplice attack 0.809 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Teplice (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Teplice xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Teplice kick off?
České Budějovice vs Teplice kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Teplice?
České Budějovice 0 - 3 Teplice.
Where is České Budějovice vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Teplice part of?
České Budějovice vs Teplice is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 30% chance of winning, Teplice a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both České Budějovice and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Teplice?
Record (8 meetings): České Budějovice 2W | Draws 2 | Teplice 4W.
What form are České Budějovice and Teplice in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Teplice (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (0.78) and Teplice's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.81x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
30%
3.36
27%
3.67
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.45
1.37
Teplice xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
8%
13.18
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.37 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
České Budějovice come into this having played 67 games, going 8W 15D 44L for 0.58 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.19 PPG from 67 outings (21W 17D 29L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Teplice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
České Budějovice's home form reads 8W 7D 18L across 33 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.88 points per game from 33 outings (7W 8D 18L).
Attack vs Defence
České Budějovice are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.04 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Current Season
Teplice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Teplice in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 8W 15D 44L in their last 67 games (0.58 PPG), while Teplice have gone 21W 17D 29L in their last 67 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Teplice away?
České Budějovice's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 0.94 PPG; Teplice away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 0-3 on 9 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
České Budějovice
2
Draws
5
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Teplice?
From 9 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 2, Teplice have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when České Budějovice 0-3 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 46%, Teplice 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (České Budějovice) and 48% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 46% of games; Teplice in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 58% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of České Budějovice's recent games and 48% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do České Budějovice and Teplice tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Teplice in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Teplice run riot with a 0-3 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat České Budějovice 0-3 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Relegation Round - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.09 xG and Teplice 1.37 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. České Budějovice fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Teplice outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.78 / defence 1.40 against Teplice attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 30% | Draw 27% | Teplice 43%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 60%, Teplice 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Teplice's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Teplice arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.58. Form held, and they took the win. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.