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Poisson model favours Teplice (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Teplice face Pardubice.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Teplice and Pardubice meet at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Teplice (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.

Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Pardubice have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form ledger tips toward Teplice. A 0.60 PPG lead over Pardubice (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Teplice have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Pardubice in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Teplice lead 4W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 2–0 with Teplice winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Teplice — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).

Pardubice — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 50% versus Pardubice 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 41% | Pardubice 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.61 xG and Pardubice 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.871 / defence 0.836 | Pardubice attack 0.777 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.203. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.356 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Teplice games / 60 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 57% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 18%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Pardubice 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Teplice (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 20% | Pardubice 20% BTTS from recent games.

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