České Budějovice 0-4 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (66%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as České Budějovice face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Slavia Praha meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
České Budějovice's record over their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
České Budějovice's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Slavia Praha have collected 2.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Slavia Praha have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Slavia Praha arrive in superior form — a 2.60 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 0.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Slavia Praha, who have 5 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Jul 2024, ended České Budějovice 0–4 Slavia Praha — a Slavia Praha win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Slavia Praha have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 53% versus Slavia Praha 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 61% | Slavia Praha 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 0.52 xG and Slavia Praha 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.526 / defence 1.195 | Slavia Praha attack 1.296 / defence 0.661. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.151. České Budějovice's attack rating of 0.526 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.52. Slavia Praha bring a tight defence (rating 0.661, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling České Budějovice's projected output down. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack rating of 1.296, which lifts their away xG to 1.78. Data: built from České Budějovice's last 44 games and Slavia Praha's last 44.
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 8% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 66%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 12.50 | Draw 3.84 | Slavia Praha 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (66%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (České Budějovice's last 10 home games and Slavia Praha's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: České Budějovice 30% (last 10 home games) | Slavia Praha 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 16 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 8% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG České Budějovice 0.52 / Slavia Praha 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.526 / def 1.195 | Slavia Praha attack 1.296 / def 0.661 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.52
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Slavia Praha xG
36%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha FAQs
What time does České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha kick off?
České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha?
České Budějovice 0 - 4 Slavia Praha.
Where is České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha part of?
České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 16) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 8% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 66% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both České Budějovice and Slavia Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 0.53x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 0.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.30x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from České Budějovice's last 44 games and Slavia Praha's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (15.9%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
8%
12.50
26%
3.84
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
15.9%
Away win
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.52
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.30
1.78
Slavia Praha xG
12.50
8%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
17%
5.95
59%
1.68
Win to Nil
1%
74.35
39%
2.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 17.8 | 15.9 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.52 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.78 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 8W 11D 30L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Slavia Praha's form line: 38W 9D 2L from 49 games, 2.51 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against České Budějovice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.13 PPG from their last 23 home games (7W 5D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 0.71 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 15W 7D 1L from their last 23 away games — 2.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
České Budějovice are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.22 scored and 0.59 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
České Budějovice (Home) vs Slavia Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
České Budějovice
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha Form FAQs
What form are České Budějovice and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 8W 11D 30L in their last 49 games (0.71 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 38W 9D 2L in their last 49 (2.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.13 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.26 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between České Budějovice and Slavia Praha, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent in our data was on 24 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Slavia Praha have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won Slavia Praha 6-1 České Budějovice on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
České Budějovice
1
Draws
6
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slavia Praha?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, České Budějovice have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Slavia Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 November 2024: České Budějovice 0-4 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 44%, Slavia Praha 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (České Budějovice) and 44% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha in 48%; České Budějovice have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in České Budějovice and Slavia Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 48% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are České Budějovice and Slavia Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of České Budějovice's recent games and 44% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do České Budějovice and Slavia Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 65% of Slavia Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 0-4 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat České Budějovice 0-4 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 0.52 xG and Slavia Praha 1.78 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.78 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.53 / defence 1.20 against Slavia Praha attack 1.30 / defence 0.66, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 8% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 66%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 61%, Slavia Praha 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.