České Budějovice 1-2 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 April 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
České Budějovice have collected 0.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 0W 1D 9L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
In front of their own supporters this season, České Budějovice have posted 0W 3D 7L at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Mlada Boleslav are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (0.60 vs 0.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Mlada Boleslav, who have claimed 8 wins from 9 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 0–4 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Mlada Boleslav have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 50% versus Mlada Boleslav 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 62% | Mlada Boleslav 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.13 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.757 / defence 1.448 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.981 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.203. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 České Budějovice games / 60 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 25% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 51%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Mlada Boleslav 1.96. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: České Budějovice 30% | Mlada Boleslav 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 25% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG České Budějovice 1.13 / Mlada Boleslav 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.757 / def 1.448 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.981 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Mlada Boleslav xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
České Budějovice 1 - 2 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 25% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (9 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 1 | Mlada Boleslav 8W.
What form are České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (0.76) and Mlada Boleslav's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.98x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
25%
4.00
24%
4.12
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.84
1.71
Mlada Boleslav xG
4.00
25%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
18%
5.52
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
5%
22.12
16%
6.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.71 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 8W 14D 44L from 66 games, a 0.58 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 23W 15D 28L across 66 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mlada Boleslav by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over České Budějovice heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 8W 7D 18L from 33 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 9W 9D 15L across 33 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
České Budějovice are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.21 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.42 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 8W 14D 44L in their last 66 games (0.58 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 23W 15D 28L in their last 66 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Mlada Boleslav's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 0.94 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Mlada Boleslav have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 4-0 on 11 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
České Budějovice
1
Draws
9
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 0, Mlada Boleslav have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when České Budějovice 1-2 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 46%, Mlada Boleslav 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (České Budějovice) and 54% (Mlada Boleslav). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 46% of games; Mlada Boleslav in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 54% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of České Budějovice's matches and 54% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mlada Boleslav edge out České Budějovice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat České Budějovice 1-2 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Relegation Round - 1, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.13 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.71 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.76 / defence 1.45 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.98 / defence 1.10, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 25% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 51%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 62%, Mlada Boleslav 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mlada Boleslav arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.58. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.