České Budějovice 0-0 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as České Budějovice face Dukla Praha.

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Fixture Analysis

České Budějovice welcome Dukla Praha to Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, České Budějovice stand at 0W 2D 8L — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, České Budějovice have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 home games (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, Dukla Praha have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Dukla Praha have gone 0W 2D 7L in their last 9 away fixtures (0.22 PPG). Away from home they average 0.44 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: České Budějovice 0.20 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, České Budějovice have won 0, Dukla Praha 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended České Budějovice 0–3 Dukla Praha — a Dukla Praha win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

České Budějovice trading profile (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 74% of games.

Dukla Praha trading profile (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 26% versus Dukla Praha 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 63% | Dukla Praha 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.18 xG and Dukla Praha 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.577 / defence 1.392 | Dukla Praha attack 0.679 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.219. České Budějovice's attack rating of 0.577 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Dukla Praha's defence rating of 1.341 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing České Budějovice's projected output up. Dukla Praha's attack rating of 0.679 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. České Budějovice's defence rating of 1.392 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dukla Praha's projected output up. Data: built from České Budějovice's last 49 games and Dukla Praha's last 19.

Result probabilities: České Budějovice 35% | Draw 31% | Dukla Praha 34%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.85 | Draw 3.19 | Dukla Praha 2.98. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates České Budějovice as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on České Budějovice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: České Budějovice 10% (last 10 home games) | Dukla Praha 44% (last 9 away games).

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