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Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Zlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Zlin 0-3 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.04 xG and Sparta Praha 1.68 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Zlin fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sparta Praha outscored their 1.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.01 / defence 1.15 against Sparta Praha attack 1.23 / defence 0.72, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zlin 23% | Draw 25% | Sparta Praha 52%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 45%, Sparta Praha 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zlin's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights