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Dominant Zlin run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Plzen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zlin beat Plzen 3-0 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.23 xG and Plzen 1.86 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Zlin beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plzen landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.95 / defence 1.29 against Plzen attack 1.29 / defence 0.99, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zlin 24% | Draw 24% | Plzen 51%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Zlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 44%, Plzen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zlin's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Plzen's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Zlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights