🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Zlin edge out Dukla Praha 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zlin beat Dukla Praha 2-1 at Stadion Letna, Relegation Group - 1, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.40 xG and Dukla Praha 1.31 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.05 / defence 1.38 against Dukla Praha attack 0.79 / defence 0.97, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zlin 38% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 34%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 57%, Dukla Praha 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zlin's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zlin 1.13 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights