Zlin 1-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zlin vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zlin and Baník Ostrava meet at Stadion Letna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 October 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Zlin's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's home record at Stadion Letna: 2W 2D 1L from 5 Czech Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Baník Ostrava have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Zlin's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Baník Ostrava's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Zlin lead 1W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Baník Ostrava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Zlin — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 60% versus Baník Ostrava 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Zlin 40% | Baník Ostrava 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 0.93 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.901 / defence 1.098 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.789 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.229. Data: 10 Zlin games / 40 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 29% | Draw 35% | Baník Ostrava 36%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Baník Ostrava 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Baník Ostrava lead the H2H ledger, but Zlin carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zlin (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: Zlin 80% | Baník Ostrava 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 29% | Draw 35% | Baník Ostrava 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Zlin 0.93 / Baník Ostrava 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.901 / def 1.098 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.789 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Baník Ostrava xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Zlin vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Stadion Letna.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Zlin 1 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Zlin vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Zlin vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 29% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Zlin and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Baník Ostrava?
Record (6 meetings): Zlin 1W | Draws 2 | Baník Ostrava 3W.
What form are Zlin and Baník Ostrava in?
Zlin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Zlin's attack rating (0.90) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (0.79x) against Zlin's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
29%
3.48
35%
2.83
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Zlin xG
Total xG
1.99
1.06
Baník Ostrava xG
3.48
29%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
10%
10.08
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 14.5 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Zlin and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Zlin and 1.06 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Zlin have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 5W 2D 3L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Zlin are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baník Ostrava.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Zlin are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 0.70 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 games (1.70 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Zlin's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.60 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Zlin or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Baník Ostrava have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baník Ostrava won 5-1 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zlin have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zlin
3
Draws
6
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, Baník Ostrava have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Zlin 0-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 80%, Baník Ostrava 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Zlin and 0% for Baník Ostrava.
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Zlin's games and 40% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Zlin's recent games and 0% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zlin and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zlin and Baník Ostrava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 11, as Zlin and Baník Ostrava drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 0.93 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.06 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.79 / defence 0.82, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 29% | Draw 35% | Baník Ostrava 36%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 40%, Baník Ostrava 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.