Zbrojovka Brno 2-1 Artis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zbrojovka Brno at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zbrojovka Brno vs Artis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zbrojovka Brno and Artis meet at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zbrojovka Brno have collected 1.86 PPG across 7 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 2L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Zbrojovka Brno have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska, Zbrojovka Brno have gone 3W 0D 1L this season (4 games, 2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Artis's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 1D 7L from 9 games (0.44 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.78 per game is modest, conceding 2.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.56 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Artis have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Artis have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.44 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.42 in Zbrojovka Brno's favour (1.86 vs 0.44) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Zbrojovka Brno goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Artis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zbrojovka Brno 43% versus Artis 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zbrojovka Brno 43% | Artis 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zbrojovka Brno 1.52 xG and Artis 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.004 / defence 1.002 | Artis attack 0.832 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.267. Data: 7 Zbrojovka Brno games / 7 Artis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 47% | Draw 28% | Artis 25%. Fair-value odds: Zbrojovka Brno 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Artis 4.00. Zbrojovka Brno hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zbrojovka Brno as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zbrojovka Brno if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Zbrojovka Brno 50% | Artis 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zbrojovka Brno vs Artis | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 47% | Draw 28% | Artis 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Zbrojovka Brno 1.52 / Artis 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.004 / def 1.002 | Artis attack 0.832 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Zbrojovka Brno (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Artis xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zbrojovka Brno vs Artis kick off?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Artis kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska.
What was the final score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Artis?
Zbrojovka Brno 2 - 1 Artis.
Where is Zbrojovka Brno vs Artis being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska.
What competition is Zbrojovka Brno vs Artis part of?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Artis is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zbrojovka Brno vs Artis?
Our statistical model gives Zbrojovka Brno a 47% chance of winning, Artis a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Zbrojovka Brno the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Artis?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Zbrojovka Brno and Artis will score (BTTS).
Will Zbrojovka Brno vs Artis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Artis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Artis in?
Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Artis (all comps): 1W-1D-7L in 9 | 0.44 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 2.56 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Zbrojovka Brno's attack at 1.00x the league average against Artis's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Artis's attack (0.83x) against Zbrojovka Brno's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zbrojovka Brno Win
47%
2.14
28%
3.56
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Total xG
2.58
1.06
Artis xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
5%
18.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zbrojovka Brno vs Artis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Zbrojovka Brno and Artis expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.06 for Artis, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Zbrojovka Brno vs Artis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zbrojovka Brno's recent record stands at 4W 1D 2L from 7 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Artis, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 5L across 7 games — 0.57 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Artis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zbrojovka Brno by 1.29 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Artis heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zbrojovka Brno have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Artis's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.57 PPG overall record — Artis travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zbrojovka Brno come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zbrojovka Brno are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Artis are on 0.86 scored and 2.29 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zbrojovka Brno
Early Season
Artis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Artis in coming into this match?
Zbrojovka Brno have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Artis have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zbrojovka Brno at home or Artis away?
Zbrojovka Brno's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zbrojovka Brno at home: 2.00 PPG; Artis away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since September 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Zbrojovka Brno
0
Draws
0
Artis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Artis?
From 1 meetings on record, Zbrojovka Brno have won 1, Artis have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zbrojovka Brno and Artis last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Zbrojovka Brno 2-1 Artis.
Who has won more matches between Zbrojovka Brno and Artis?
Zbrojovka Brno have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zbrojovka Brno see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zbrojovka Brno 33%, Artis 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Zbrojovka Brno and 33% for Artis.
On the defensive side: Zbrojovka Brno keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Zbrojovka Brno have failed to score in 33% of games; Artis in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zbrojovka Brno home games / Artis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zbrojovka Brno play Artis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Zbrojovka Brno's recent matches and 67% of Artis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zbrojovka Brno vs Artis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Zbrojovka Brno's recent games and 33% of Artis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zbrojovka Brno and Artis tend to score early?
Zbrojovka Brno have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Artis in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zbrojovka Brno edge out Artis 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zbrojovka Brno beat Artis 2-1 at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zbrojovka Brno 1.52 xG and Artis 1.06 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.00 / defence 1.00 against Artis attack 0.83 / defence 1.05, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zbrojovka Brno 47% | Draw 28% | Artis 25%, with Zbrojovka Brno to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zbrojovka Brno 43%, Artis 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Artis's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zbrojovka Brno arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.57. That form edge translated into the three points. Artis (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.