Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plzen host Sigma Olomouc at Doosan Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 5W 3D 2L at Doosan Arena — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sigma Olomouc — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Plzen at 1.60 PPG versus Sigma Olomouc's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Plzen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sigma Olomouc in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Plzen hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 7 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 2 for Sigma Olomouc, with 1 draws in between.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Plzen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Plzen and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (40 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (40 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 50% versus Sigma Olomouc 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 52% | Sigma Olomouc 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.44 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.007 / defence 1.102 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.888 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Data: 35 Plzen games / 36 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 39% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 35%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Sigma Olomouc 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 60% | Sigma Olomouc 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 39% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Plzen 1.44 / Sigma Olomouc 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.007 / def 1.102 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.888 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Plzen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Sigma Olomouc xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Doosan Arena.
Where is Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 39% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Plzen and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (10 meetings): Plzen 7W | Draws 1 | Sigma Olomouc 2W.
What form are Plzen and Sigma Olomouc in?
Plzen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.01) and Sigma Olomouc's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
39%
2.54
25%
3.96
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.80
1.35
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
10%
9.83
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Plzen and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Plzen and 1.35 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen come into this having played 40 games, going 19W 12D 9L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.55 PPG from 40 outings (18W 8D 14L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plzen on 1.72 PPG, Sigma Olomouc on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Plzen's home form reads 11W 6D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.29 points per game from 21 outings (8W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.38 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Early Season
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 19W 12D 9L in their last 40 games (1.72 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 18W 8D 14L in their last 40 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Plzen's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.86 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Plzen or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Plzen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Plzen's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
1
Draws
2
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Sigma Olomouc?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 57%, Sigma Olomouc 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Plzen) and 62% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Plzen's games and 62% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Plzen's recent games and 62% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.