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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Zlin cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Teplice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zlin beat Teplice 1-3 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.49 xG and Zlin 1.01 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zlin outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.94 / defence 0.90 against Zlin attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 48% | Draw 26% | Zlin 25%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Zlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights