Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Teplice at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Teplice welcome Zlin to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 July 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Teplice haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Teplice have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Teplice, 3 for Zlin and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Teplice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.49 xG and Zlin 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.936 / defence 0.899 | Zlin attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.321. Data: 30 Teplice games / 0 Zlin games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Teplice 48% | Draw 26% | Zlin 25%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Zlin 4.00. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (7 meetings): Teplice 3W | Draws 1 | Zlin 3W • Goals trend: 2.86 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Teplice 10 – 10 Zlin • H2H markets: BTTS 71% | Over 2.5 86% | Win rates: Teplice 43% / Draw 14% / Zlin 43% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 48% / draw 26% / away 25% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 2.86 goals/game (86% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.50 (46% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 71%, Poisson probability 49% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Teplice (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W • Teplice home split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | CS 7
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 48% | Draw 26% | Zlin 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Teplice 1.49 / Zlin 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.936 / def 0.899 | Zlin attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Teplice (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Zlin xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Zlin kick off?
Teplice vs Zlin kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 July 2025 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Zlin?
Teplice 1 - 3 Zlin.
Where is Teplice vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Zlin part of?
Teplice vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 48% chance of winning, Zlin a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Teplice and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Zlin?
• Record (7 meetings): Teplice 3W | Draws 1 | Zlin 3W • Goals trend: 2.86 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Teplice 10 – 10 Zlin • H2H markets: BTTS 71% | Over 2.5 86% | Win rates: Teplice 43% / Draw 14% / Zlin 43% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 48% / draw 26% / away 25% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 2.86 goals/game (86% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.50 (46% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 71%, Poisson probability 49% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Teplice and Zlin in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Teplice (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W • Teplice home split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | CS 7
What do the betting odds say about Teplice vs Zlin?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture