Teplice vs Slovan Liberec – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Slovan Liberec at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Slovan Liberec encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Slovan Liberec make the trip to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Teplice have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Teplice at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Slovan Liberec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Slovan Liberec's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

On a straight form reading, Slovan Liberec are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Teplice, who have won 6 of the last 10 meetings against Slovan Liberec — a 3D 1W return for the visitors.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Teplice winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Teplice and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 49% versus Slovan Liberec 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Teplice 40% | Slovan Liberec 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 0.94 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.944 / defence 0.978 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.908 / defence 0.739. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Slovan Liberec's defence strength of 0.739 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Teplice games / 42 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 27% | Draw 35% | Slovan Liberec 38%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.70 | Draw 2.86 | Slovan Liberec 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Teplice dominate the H2H record, yet Slovan Liberec are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

Poisson rates Slovan Liberec as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 50% | Slovan Liberec 40% BTTS from recent games.

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