Teplice vs Slovan Liberec – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Slovan Liberec make the trip to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Teplice have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Teplice at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Slovan Liberec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Slovan Liberec's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Teplice, 1.70 for Slovan Liberec — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Teplice, who have won 6 of the last 10 meetings against Slovan Liberec — a 3D 1W return for the visitors.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Teplice winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Teplice and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).

Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 50% versus Slovan Liberec 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Teplice 41% | Slovan Liberec 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.07 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.077 / defence 1.179 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.871 / defence 0.734. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.162. Slovan Liberec's defence strength of 0.734 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Teplice games / 41 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 32% | Draw 29% | Slovan Liberec 39%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Slovan Liberec 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Slovan Liberec as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 50% | Slovan Liberec 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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