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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Pardubice encounter.

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Analysis

Pardubice make the trip to Stadion Strelnice to face FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

FK Jablonec (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FK Jablonec haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

FK Jablonec at Stadion Strelnice this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Strelnice than their overall form suggests.

Pardubice have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Pardubice haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Pardubice have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

On a straight form reading, Pardubice are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours FK Jablonec, who have won 6 of the last 10 meetings against Pardubice — a 1D 3W return for the visitors.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with FK Jablonec winning.

The historical record gives FK Jablonec a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Where They Stand

The standings have FK Jablonec (5th, 0 pts) 11 places above Pardubice (16th, 0 pts) — a 0-point gap in Czech Liga.

On home turf, FK Jablonec's Czech Liga record reads 0W 0D 0L this term. Pardubice have gone 0W 0D 0L on their travels. FK Jablonec: Promotion - Chance Liga (Championship Group). Pardubice: Chance Liga (Relegation Group).

Trading Data

FK Jablonec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 41% versus Pardubice 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 44% | Pardubice 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.34 xG and Pardubice 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.018 / defence 0.981 | Pardubice attack 1.036 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.204. Data: 30 FK Jablonec games / 30 Pardubice games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 39% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 33%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Pardubice 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

FK Jablonec dominate the H2H record, yet Pardubice are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pardubice (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 60% | Pardubice 50% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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