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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Teplice and Slovácko share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Relegation Group - 1, as Teplice and Slovácko drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.14 xG and Slovácko 0.97 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.70 / defence 0.92 against Slovácko attack 0.88 / defence 1.18, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 38% | Draw 32% | Slovácko 30%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 43%, Slovácko 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Slovácko's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Teplice 1.12 PPG, Slovácko 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights