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Prediction vindicated as Teplice edge out Slovácko 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Teplice beat Slovácko 1-0 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.42 xG and Slovácko 0.69 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.88 / defence 0.98 against Slovácko attack 0.57 / defence 1.18, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 54% | Draw 28% | Slovácko 18%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 47%, Slovácko 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Slovácko's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 51% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Teplice 1.17 PPG, Slovácko 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights