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Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Teplice 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Teplice 1-2 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.03 xG and Slavia Praha 1.46 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.88 / defence 0.90 against Slavia Praha attack 1.24 / defence 0.85, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 26% | Draw 29% | Slavia Praha 46%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 46%, Slavia Praha 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights