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Shock result as Teplice defy the odds to beat Slavia Praha 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Teplice beat Slavia Praha 1-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 0.88 xG and Slavia Praha 1.99 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slavia Praha landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 1.04 / defence 1.23 against Slavia Praha attack 1.34 / defence 0.57, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 15% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 62%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Teplice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 48%, Slavia Praha 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Teplice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights