Teplice 1-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sigma Olomouc make the trip to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's home record at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this season.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Teplice, 1.90 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Teplice lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 49% versus Sigma Olomouc 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 42% | Sigma Olomouc 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.67 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.120 / defence 1.212 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.085 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.250. Data: 39 Teplice games / 39 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 38% | Draw 24% | Sigma Olomouc 38%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Sigma Olomouc 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 40% | Sigma Olomouc 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 38% | Draw 24% | Sigma Olomouc 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Teplice 1.67 / Sigma Olomouc 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 1.120 / def 1.212 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.085 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Sigma Olomouc xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Teplice 1 - 1 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 38% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Teplice and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (9 meetings): Teplice 4W | Draws 2 | Sigma Olomouc 3W.
What form are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc in?
Teplice (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Teplice's attack rating (1.12) and Sigma Olomouc's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.08x) against Teplice's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
38%
2.60
24%
4.17
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Teplice xG
Total xG
3.31
1.65
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.60
38%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
7%
13.47
7%
14.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Teplice and 1.65 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Teplice's recent record stands at 15W 13D 15L from 43 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 20W 8D 15L across 43 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Teplice against 1.58 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Teplice have managed 8W 5D 9L from 22 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 9W 3D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.42 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 15W 13D 15L in their last 43 games (1.35 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 8D 15L in their last 43 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Sigma Olomouc's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.32 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Teplice or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
3
Draws
3
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Teplice 1-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 41%, Sigma Olomouc 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Teplice) and 64% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 32% of games; Sigma Olomouc in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Teplice's recent matches and 64% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Teplice's recent games and 64% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice and Sigma Olomouc share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice and Sigma Olomouc finished level at 1-1 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.67 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.65 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 1.12 / defence 1.21 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 38% | Draw 24% | Sigma Olomouc 38%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 42%, Sigma Olomouc 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.35 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.