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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Bohemians 1905 host Baník Ostrava at Dolicek in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Bohemians 1905 haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Dolicek this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dolicek this season.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Baník Ostrava haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Baník Ostrava's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians 1905 at 1.60 PPG versus Baník Ostrava's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Bohemians 1905, 4 for Baník Ostrava and 3 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 41% versus Baník Ostrava 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bohemians 1905 41% | Baník Ostrava 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.50 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.947 / defence 0.928 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.923 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Bohemians 1905 games / 30 Baník Ostrava games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 47% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 25%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Baník Ostrava 4.00. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 50% | Baník Ostrava 50%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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