Teplice vs Pardubice – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Teplice (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Teplice face Pardubice.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Teplice and Pardubice meet at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Teplice (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Teplice have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this season.

Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Pardubice have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form ledger tips toward Teplice. A 1.20 PPG lead over Pardubice (2.20 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Teplice, who have won 5 of the last 10 meetings against Pardubice — a 3D 2W return for the visitors.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives Teplice a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Teplice — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).

Pardubice — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Teplice 53% and Pardubice 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 40% | Pardubice 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.97 xG and Pardubice 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.242 / defence 1.134 | Pardubice attack 0.922 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Data: 36 Teplice games / 36 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 50% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 28%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Pardubice 3.57. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 40% | Pardubice 60%.

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