🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Teplice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 10, as Teplice and Pardubice drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.77 xG and Pardubice 1.44 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Teplice fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Pardubice landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 1.03 / defence 1.10 against Pardubice attack 1.02 / defence 1.28, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 44% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 30%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 48%, Pardubice 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Pardubice's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Teplice arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights